On the one hand it makes sense to think the world in a much more local way, on the other hand it is very important to know that the world does not stop at our borders.

We have seen the first effects of the coming impact in recent years. This is really the time to think about it: how do we want to live? What do we want to use all these resources for? But it’s incredibly difficult to talk about something you don’t know yet. On the one hand it makes sense to think the world in a much more local way, on the other hand it is very important to know that the world does not stop at our borders. Climate, financial or migration flows, terrorism – these are all things that can only be understood globally.

Borders suddenly became extremely important. What does the strengthening of nation states mean for the future? Does that make the next Central European war a little more possible? Blom: If you work historically and are interested in moments of upheaval, then you can see that anything is possible at any point in time. And that the big disasters always come when a society feels particularly safe. But there are good arguments against a Central European war or against a rise of fascism in Europe, and the strongest argument against it that I know is quite simply the demographics: We had a lot of young men in the 20s and 30s, from which the older ones had already been brutalized by a war. We have an aging population today that has never been through a war. But we are already seeing how democracies are slowly being eroded and abolished around us. Another play has long been played between the scenes of democracy. And if, in the future, public life would only be possible through tracking apps, this would create an information infrastructure that can be catastrophic if it falls into the wrong hands.

“The comfort in which we have established ourselves has become deadly.”

Very restrictive measures under the heading of “health crisis” were accepted surprisingly without contradiction. Is that also one of the lessons from this crisis: that we ultimately put up with everything? Blom: I think it’s a matter of indolence. We have so much that it is very easy to withdraw into an apolitical life and to be entertained, informed and drunk 24 hours a day. In this way, a certain lifetime can be unwound very smoothly without getting politically involved. Most people only take to the streets when they feel bad. As long as most people are fine and having a good time, they are probably quite ready to come to terms with many systems. We need more discomfort, however, because the ease in which we have established ourselves has become fatal.

Will the crisis, which shows what is possible, bring us closer to or remove us from the real question of human survival? Won’t it soon be said that we have to start up the economy again, no matter what the cost, and we’ll take care of the climate later?https://123helpme.me/ In your book you call it the “omega phase” of a society: against better knowledge, continue towards the abyss … Blom: In my book I write that there will be a battle of stories, a battle for the authority to explain this time . It is not the truest and noblest story that wins, but the most effective. I believe that people who are passionate about the need to start living differently must try to do everything possible to make this story the most effective. We must not take our responsibility here. For many generations after us we must now decide which direction it will go. In a certain way, without wanting to negate the tragedy for many people, this corona shock is the best that could have happened to us: It shows that there is another way, yes, we can pull the emergency brake if necessary. We are not an appendix to the market, we have our own strength and our own priorities.

But did the politicians understand that too? Blom: Politics is a pragmatic art. You still have to pursue visions, and the vision cannot be that what we have now is already the best. Not only because we behave in a predatory manner towards natural resources and other people, but also because we see: young people scratch themselves so that they can feel something, people take tons of antidepressants – nobody can tell me that these are the happiest societies in the world are. We have to change our society. We have realized that we are not the masters of creation. We realized that we are one organism in a huge system. That would be a very simple insight that could promote a new society. We are at a moment as radical as the Enlightenment, as radical as the beginnings of our culture. We have to set a new course. Because what we have now will probably no longer be viable in 20 years.

“People have to notice it firsthand in order to react. «

But which story would be catchy enough to change political action so permanently? Blom: We are psychologically very ill equipped to deal with gradual and slow crises. A sudden, catastrophic change like Corona, we can react to it very effectively and quickly. But such a creeping change as the climate, where the biggest and most catastrophic changes take place elsewhere, is much more difficult. At the same time, this is a catastrophically dry spring, and we will likely have a very warm summer in which people will have circulatory problems. People have to feel it firsthand in order to react. But we need huge changes quickly, we need a real green new deal, a green, sustainable infrastructure that our grandchildren can still use. Then we would again have the hope in our society that we are working for a common future and not just for our individual prosperity. The builder who drew the plans for St. Stephen’s Cathedral knew that his grandchildren would never see this cathedral finished either, but in a few centuries there will be something huge. That would be an access that we need now. We have lost the future and we have to create it again.

ABOUT THE PERSON: Philipp Blom, born in Hamburg in 1970, studied philosophy, history and Jewish studies in Vienna and Oxford. He lives in Vienna as an author, journalist and historian. His best-known books include “The Staggering Continent. Europe 1900-1914” (2009), “The Torn Years. 1918-1938” (2014) and “The World From Its Hooks” (2017). In 2018 he was the opening speaker of the Salzburg Festival.

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Far from herd immunity

On the other hand, however, “no brake” is built in for further spread, as the results of a further study presented on Monday showed, which was carried out in 27 municipalities in Austria with so far many proven Covid 19 infections. Antibody tests have shown that just under five percent of the local population has already gone through an infection. This is “far from herd immunity” and thus a natural barrier to spread, as the virologist Elisabeth Puchhammer-Stöckl from the Medical University (MedUni) Vienna emphasized.

For the second study, Statistics Austria selected a representative sample of 2,800 people aged 16 and over and carried out the investigation between April 21st and 24th in cooperation with the Red Cross (ÖRK) and the Medical University of Vienna. The current estimate for Austria as a whole is based on the PCR test results of 1,432 people.

According to the first dark figure study, between 10,200 and 67,400 people in Austria were infected with the corona virus at the beginning of April. The most likely value was 28,500 infected people, which corresponds to 0.33 percent of the population. This number exceeded that of the sick people identified at the time by about three times. While children were included in the first study, only those over 16 were tested in the second. If you convert the values from the first study to people aged 16 and over, the maximum value in the first study was 60,287 infected people, which corresponds to around 0.8 percent of the total population.

Infected only 0.15 percent of the population

Now the highest value is 10,823 infected people, which is only around 0.15 percent of the total population aged 16 and over. This is an extrapolated value, because of the 1,432 people tested, only one was infected, as the study project manager at Statistics Austria, Matea Paskvan, explained. The estimated number of unreported cases exceeds the number of proven infected people at the time of the test by about four to five times.

In addition to the sample investigation, an “experimental validation study” for antibody tests was carried out and a sample of 540 people was drawn from risk areas with a high percentage of positive corona tests. A PCR test, a rapid antibody test and a serological test procedure in which blood is drawn were finally carried out in 269 people at the same time.

In the selected communities, an average of 4.71 percent had developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. This means that around 1,900 people out of a total of 40,000 residents in these risk communities have had a coronavirus infection in the past few weeks. When applied to the total population there, the PCR tests showed an extrapolated proportion of currently infected people of 0.75 percent.

Risk of a second wave of illness

In view of all these findings, both Faßmann and Puchhammer-Stöckl warned of the risk of a second wave of the disease. Even in somewhat comparable international studies, the estimated values for contamination in hotspots are barely above ten percent. For herd immunity, which will automatically dampen the spread in the future, between 40 and 60 percent of the population would have to have already been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, according to the virologist, who had doubts at all that in relation to this virus can establish stable herd immunity.

It will probably only be possible to say more precisely in about three weeks whether the now relaxed measures for social distancing are reflected in increasing case numbers. Current developments, such as the slight increase in the number of infected people in Vienna, have to be monitored closely, said Puchhammer-Stöckl.

According to Faßman, this includes a third representative sample study, which the minister announced for mid-May. Also due to the “learning effect” regarding the avoidance of infections in the population, Faßmann hopes for a “slowed down” possible second wave.

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On the one hand it makes sense to think the world in a much more local way, on the other hand it is very important to know that the world does not stop at our borders.

On the one hand it makes sense to think the world in a much more local way, on the other hand it is very important to know that the world does not stop at our borders.

Far from herd immunity

Infected only 0.15 percent of the population

Risk of a second wave of illness

Far from herd immunity

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